USDJPY Carry Trade or Bust

Monday, January 14, 2008 |

Whoa! JPY is in a bull run. What bull run? It is the carry trade exits you dummy. With the impending US rate cut of 0.5% everybody is running to the exits. Mr. Ben Bernake has signaled that the US will use "insurance" to beat inflation. Whatever that means, they are taking recession head on. Good for them. But with the rates going down, well-moneyed traders are hitting the exits and rushing to the EUR and CHF. If you would look at the charts of EURJPY and CHFJPY, it seems like its drawn by a straightedge. But the bets are probably heavier on the CHF because the chart is falling on the EURCHF.

As for my last trade on the USDJPY, my earlier 2 trades are big winners now but the latter 2 trades went bust. Stop hunting who-knows-who got them, after the prices got to 110.00, it sunk like stone on water. I am still keeping my two winners. I don't know when I will close, but right now I am more inclined to close it when prices drops below 100 ;) . I am not sure it will happen but I have a feeling that it would go down the 100 yen mark. Here in Korea the dollar is already below the won, the yen would probably follow suite.

For anyone who have seen my tradesheet last post, I will try to post it everytime it gets updated. You can use this tradesheet as your own. It can be downloaded for zohosheets.com. Here is my updated tradesheet:

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